Canadian Softwood Lumber Duties 2026: AD, CVD, Section 232, and what BC producers actually pay

The headline rate is 24.83%. The effective burden is 34.83%. The two numbers tell a different story, and operators allocating Q2 cash should know which one to plan around.

If you sell Canadian softwood lumber into the United States, you pay duties at a rate that nobody can quote you in a single number. Three separate instruments stack on top of one another, each operating under its own logic, each updated on its own schedule. The "duty rate" you see in industry coverage usually refers to one of them, sometimes two, rarely all three. This article walks through the full stack as it stood at the seventh administrative review preliminary results, published April 9, 2026.

The three instruments, in plain English

The current duty stack — preliminary, post-April 9 2026

The April 9, 2026 preliminary results from the US Department of Commerce's seventh administrative review revised the AD and CVD rates. Combined with the Section 232 tariff in effect, the stack now looks like this:

The Section 232 tariff is the line industry coverage tends to omit. When a piece runs the headline "duties cut from 35.16% to 24.83%," what they're describing is the AD/CVD subtotal moving down by ~10 percentage points. The Section 232 tariff did not change. So the effective burden moved from approximately 45.16% (35.16 + 10) to 34.83% (24.83 + 10) — a ten-point reduction, but still well above the AD/CVD subtotal that headlines fixate on.

How the administrative review cycle works

The AD and CVD orders against Canadian softwood lumber have been in effect since 2017. Under US trade law, both are subject to annual administrative reviews — a process where the US Department of Commerce examines a "period of review" (POR) and issues new rates that apply going forward.

The seventh administrative review is the seventh of these annual cycles. Preliminary results come out in spring; final results typically follow in late August (with a possibility of an October extension). The preliminary rates are not the operative rates — they are notice of where Commerce is currently leaning. Final results determine what is actually owed.

What happens to the cash in the meantime — escrow

Throughout each POR, Canadian producers pay the in-effect rates as cash deposits to US Customs. The deposits accumulate in escrow until the final rate is published. If the final rate ends up lower than the in-effect rate, producers receive refunds. If it ends up higher, producers owe the difference. Either way, none of the escrow cash returns until the final ruling lands.

Cumulative duties paid by Canadian softwood producers since the trade dispute began have surpassed US$8 billion, according to the Globe and Mail. That figure represents cash that is currently sitting in US Treasury escrow accounts pending the resolution of multiple administrative review cycles.

Why the duty rate keeps changing

Each administrative review re-examines the underlying calculations. Changes from one review to the next can come from:

• Updated cost data. Producer-specific cost-of-production data submitted to Commerce during the POR is the largest variable. If lumber prices declined during the POR, producers' margins compress, and the AD calculation produces a lower dumping margin.
• Updated stumpage / subsidy calculations. CVD math leans heavily on the gap between Canadian Crown stumpage rates and a benchmark price Commerce considers "market." If Canadian stumpage rose during the POR (it has, at points), the calculated subsidy falls and CVD declines.
• Methodology changes. Commerce occasionally revises how it calculates either duty. Methodology changes can produce step-changes in either direction.
• Producer-specific adjustments. Individual respondents (the largest BC producers — Canfor, West Fraser, Interfor — typically among them) get producer-specific rates. Smaller producers get an "all-others" rate.

The Section 232 tariff is the part that won't move

Section 232 lives in a different legal regime. AD/CVD are administered by Commerce as trade-remedy law. Section 232 is a presidential national-security determination — modified by executive action, not by the annual review cycle. The 10% tariff imposed on Canadian softwood lumber in October 2025 is therefore not subject to the seventh administrative review and will remain in place until either (a) the executive branch lifts it, or (b) a successful legal challenge in US courts unwinds it.

For BC producers planning around duty exposure, this matters: your AD/CVD rate may move ten or fifteen percentage points each review. Your Section 232 rate likely will not. Build the floor into the model.

What to track next

1. Late August 2026 — final results of the seventh administrative review. The preliminary 24.83% AD/CVD subtotal becomes definitive (or revised). Effective burden either stays at 34.83% or moves.
2. Cash-back accounting. If the final rate comes in lower than what producers have been paying as deposits, refund flows are material. The escrowed amount across the period of review is the upper bound on potential refunds.
3. Section 232 status. Watch for executive action or court rulings affecting the 10% tariff. This is the line that determines whether the effective burden floor stays at ~34% or moves toward the AD/CVD subtotal.
4. Eighth review POR opening. The annual cycle continues. The eighth review's POR will run from the eighth review's start date forward; data submitted during that period determines the next rate revision.

Where to find the official rates

• US Department of Commerce — issues the AD/CVD preliminary and final results
• Federal Register — publishes the formal notices; search "softwood lumber"
• Government of Canada — Softwood Lumber — Canadian government's tracking and resources
• US Lumber Coalition — petitioners; positional but useful for upcoming-review timing
• BC Government News, Ministry of Forests — provincial government's response and operator-relevant guidance