Source: Yahoo Finance · For information only · Not investment advice
Top of the Deck · Lead
DUTIESApril 9, 2026 · ongoing
US Commerce Department's seventh administrative review preliminarily cuts combined softwood duty from 35.16% to 24.83% — but Section 232 keeps effective burden at 34.83%
The US Department of Commerce released the preliminary results of its seventh administrative review of antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties on Canadian softwood lumber on April 9, 2026. The preliminary combined rate is set at 24.83%, down from the in-effect 35.16%. The antidumping portion drops from 20.53% to 10.66%; the countervailing portion is marginally lower at 14.17%.
The preliminary numbers do not take effect on their own. Final results are expected in late August 2026, with the possibility of an October extension. More importantly: a separate 10% Section 232 tariff imposed October 2025 sits on top of these duties. The effective combined burden for Canadian producers therefore remains at approximately 34.83%, not the 24.83% figure.
The cash-back math BC producers should be running: total duties paid by Canadian softwood producers since the trade dispute began have surpassed US$8 billion (Globe and Mail). The preliminary rate does not return any of that on its own — escrowed cash only releases when the final rate publishes.
2026 COFI Convention: BC's largest forestry CEOs say fibre access, land certainty, and regulatory reform are now urgent — citing 21 mill closures and 15,000 lost jobs
At the 2026 BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI) Convention this month, four of the province's largest forest sector CEOs delivered an unusually direct read on the sector's structural state. Susan Yurkovich (President and CEO, Canfor) and Sean McLaren (President and CEO, West Fraser) cited 21 mill closures and roughly 15,000 forestry jobs lost since the most recent peak as evidence that the operating environment has materially deteriorated.
The economic frame the CEOs put on greenfield investment: a new mill represents approximately a US$200 million capital commitment with a 20-to-25-year payback horizon, requiring durable confidence in fibre availability before any capital authorization can clear the boardroom. Canfor noted approximately C$900 million invested in BC operations since 2019.
For Fibre Supply readers tracking AAC (Allowable Annual Cut — the maximum legal harvest volume per licensee per year): the CEOs' framing connects directly to ongoing TSR (Timber Supply Review) outcomes that have lowered AACs across multiple TSAs (Timber Supply Areas). The sponsor message under that framing is that fibre supply uncertainty, not lumber pricing, is now the binding constraint on BC sawmilling capital.
1 ·Raymond James upgrades forestry stocks on improving lumber conditions. The bank reset its rating posture for the sector, citing a directional improvement in lumber market conditions. No price targets are reproduced here per Fibre Supply's display-only securities discipline. [Source: Tree Frog Forestry News]
2 ·CIBC moves Canfor, Interfor, and West Fraser to Outperformer. CIBC's coverage upgrade hit the three TSX-listed lumber names earlier in April. Reaction in CFP and IFP is visible in the 30-day sparklines above. [Source: MarketScreener]
3 ·BC Value-Added Accelerators initiative names Kootenay non-replaceable forest licence for marketing. Provincial program identifies a non-replaceable forest licence to be marketed to Kootenay-area value-added facilities, with support from Interfor. [Source: news.gov.bc.ca, BC Gov News release 2026FOR0010-000381]
Regulatory Docket
Body
Action
Who / What
Date
US Dept of Commerce
Preliminary AD/CVD review
Seventh admin review — Canadian softwood
Apr 9, 2026
BC Ministry of Forests
Coast Appraisal Manual
2026 Master in effect
Eff. 2026
BC Ministry of Forests
Provincial Waste Manual
Updated; in effect
Jan 15, 2026
BC Gov News
Forest licence marketing notice
Value-Added Accelerators (Kootenay)
Apr 2026
US Lumber Coalition / Commerce
Subsidies and dumping confirmed
Seventh annual review (preliminary)
Apr 9, 2026
Facts to Watch
Combined preliminary softwood rate: 24.83% — down from 35.16%. Effective with Section 232: 34.83%. Source: US Dept of Commerce 7th admin review preliminary results, Apr 9 2026 (per IndexBox / NAHB / US Lumber Coalition).
Antidumping preliminary: 10.66% — down from 20.53%. Source: same.
Countervailing preliminary: 14.17% — down from approximately 14.6%. Source: same.
Section 232 tariff: 10% — imposed October 2025, applied on top of AD/CVD. Source: same.
BC mill closures cited at COFI 2026: 21. Source: 2026 COFI Convention CEO panel (per Tree Frog Forestry News).
BC forestry jobs lost cited at COFI 2026: ~15,000. Source: same.
Canfor invested in BC since 2019: ~C$900 million. Source: 2026 COFI Convention.
Greenfield mill capital benchmark cited at COFI: US$200M, 20–25 year payback.Source: same.
