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FIBRE SUPPLY
BC forestry intelligence · twice weeklyVol. 1 · Edition 002 · Tue Apr 28 2026

Ticker Tape · last close

SymbolNameCloseDay %30d
WFG.TOWest Fraser$89.50-0.48%
CFP.TOCanfor$12.56-0.63%
IFP.TOInterfor$10.33-1.15%
WEF.TOWestern Forest Prod.$14.55+0.28%
DBM.TODoman Building Mat.$10.15-0.39%
MERCMercer Intl.$1.12-4.27%
WYWeyerhaeuser$25.03+0.12%
RYNRayonier (post-PCH merger)$21.33+0.14%
Source: Yahoo Finance · For information only · Not investment advice. Production runs refresh data at the open of edition day.

Top of the Deck · Lead

STUMPAGEEffective Jan 1 – Nov 30, 2026

BC's Stumpage Payment Deferral Program — what it actually does, who it helps, and the November cliff

Foggy BC clearcut with red stumps

As part of Budget 2026, the Province of British Columbia introduced the Stumpage Payment Deferral Program — a temporary measure providing tenure holders with cash-flow relief by deferring stumpage invoices that would otherwise come due during the eligibility window. The program is in effect from January 1, 2026 to November 30, 2026.

The mechanic is straightforward: deferral, not forgiveness. Stumpage that would have been billed to the Harvest Billing System during the program window can be deferred against a later payment date set by the Province. The intent is to bridge tenure holders through the current downturn — reduced lumber prices, mill curtailments, and elevated US tariffs that have stripped working capital out of operating budgets.

Two operator implications worth tracking through the second half of 2026: first, the November 30 sunset is a cliff, not a glide path — any deferred amounts crystallize on that date unless the program is extended. Second, tenure holders carrying deferred stumpage on the balance sheet at year-end face a working-capital test in Q1 2027 that the auditor will look at carefully. Plan now.

Top of the Deck · Second

EARNINGSWest Fraser Q1 — April 20, 2026

West Fraser confirms 1.1 billion board feet of capacity removed from BC operations; Texas and South Carolina absorb the redirected capex

US South log sort yard with mechanical loader

West Fraser Timber (WFG.TO) reported Q1 2026 results on April 20. The company has now removed approximately 1.1 billion board feet of production capacity through closures and curtailments, citing oversupplied lumber and OSB markets and elevated tariff burden. Capital allocation continues to favour the company's Texas and South Carolina mill assets; BC capex commitments are visibly running below the prior trajectory.

For BC fibre tracking, the salient figure is the *net* capacity reduction in BC versus the *gross* additions in the US South. Operators reading the MD&A should compare year-over-year BC standing-inventory positions against the curtailment schedule — those numbers are where the operational story lives, not the consolidated headlines.

The Cut · three things to know

1 ·US Lumber Coalition releases position paper claiming Canadian softwood subsidies exceed C$2 billion. The April 2 release frames the figure as evidence in support of US producers' arguments at the ongoing Commerce Department reviews. The figure is the Coalition's own — Fibre Supply notes the source as advocacy, not regulator finding. [Source: PRNewswire / Tree Frog Forestry News, Apr 2 2026.]
2 ·BC Wildfire Service spring 2026 outlook published — near or below normal severity. A relatively wet and mild winter across most of BC has eased the early-season wildfire forecast. Salvage volume opportunity tied to the 2024–25 fire seasons remains material; the spring-2026 outlook is good news for capacity, not for salvage. [Source: BCWS, via 2026 COFI coverage.]
3 ·2026 COFI Convention concluded — premier and opposition leaders converged on "predictability" as the binding constraint on BC forest investment. Day 2 of the convention shifted from diagnosis to prescription, with broad agreement that fibre supply visibility — not lumber price — is the variable mill capital is waiting on. [Source: Tree Frog Forestry News.]

Regulatory Docket

BodyActionWho / WhatDate
BC Ministry of ForestsStumpage Payment Deferral ProgramTenure-holder cash-flow reliefEff. Jan 1 – Nov 30, 2026
West Fraser TimberQ1 2026 earnings releaseWFG.TO consolidated resultsApr 20, 2026
BC Wildfire ServiceSpring 2026 seasonal outlookNear or below normal severityApr 2026
US Lumber CoalitionSubsidy claim releaseC$2B figure (Coalition position)Apr 2, 2026
Council of Forest Industries2026 Convention concludedDay 2 — predictability themeApr 2026

Facts to Watch

Stumpage Payment Deferral Program: Jan 1 – Nov 30, 2026. Deferral of stumpage invoices, not forgiveness. Source: Budget 2026, BC Ministry of Forests.
West Fraser capacity removed: ~1.1 billion board feet across BC closures and curtailments. Source: West Fraser Q1 2026 release / Simply Wall St analysis, Apr 20.
WFG.TO Q1 trading at C$90.79; market cap ~C$6.90B at earnings release. Source: Yahoo Finance / Meyka, Apr 20–24 2026.
US Lumber Coalition's claimed Canadian subsidies: C$2 billion (Coalition position, not regulator finding). Source: US Lumber Coalition release, Apr 2 2026.
BCWS 2026 spring outlook: near or below normal severity. Source: BC Wildfire Service via 2026 COFI Convention coverage.
BC mill closures cited at 2026 COFI: 21. Forestry jobs lost: ~15,000. Source: 2026 COFI Convention CEO panel.